Prediction of Tatjana Maria vs Irene Burillo at Quito Open - Quito 12-02-25

• How do second serve performances compare? Tatjana Maria has won 41.81% of points on her second serve recently, while Irene Burillo has captured 38.11%.
• When it comes to returning serves, who performs better? Irene Burillo leads in returning second serves with 51.53%, compared to Tatjana Maria's 47.36%. However, in first serve returns, Irene surpasses Tatjana with 39.89% against 30.84%.
• Under Pressure: Tatjana Maria has successfully saved 50.91% of breakpoints, slightly better than Irene Burillo's 45.74%.
• Match Performance Comparison: Over the past year, Tatjana Maria holds a 48.39% win rate, while Irene Burillo stands at 51.47% in matches.
• Which surfaces favor these players? Tatjana Maria excels on Grass with a 66% win rate but struggles more on Hard courts, with a 50% win rate. In contrast, Irene Burillo thrives on Clay with a similar 66% win rate, but finds Grass challenging, winning only 33% of such matches.
• Tour Level Engagement: Tatjana Maria has been competing mostly on the Main tour, securing a 50% win rate, whereas Irene Burillo has a slight edge on the Challengers/ITF tournaments with a 53.33% win rate.
• Quality of Opponents: In the past year, Tatjana Maria has faced opponents with an average ranking of 129.87, significantly higher than Irene Burillo's average opponent rank of 348.10.
• Deciding Set Dynamics: If the match reaches a deciding set, Irene Burillo has proven to be more successful, winning 64% of these sets compared to Tatjana Maria's 44% win rate.

Editorial Prediction (December 1, 2025, UTC):

Tatjana Maria's stronger performance on her second serve and ability to handle high-pressure situations, as reflected in her breakpoint saving statistics, indicate critical areas where she might have an edge.

Although Irene Burillo shows strength in returning serves and performing in deciding sets, her opponents have been ranked lower on average, which might not fully reflect her potential against higher-ranked competitors like Tatjana Maria.

Considering the overall match performance, quality of opposition, and strengths in critical match scenarios, Tatjana Maria is the slightly more likely winner in the upcoming encounter.